It is designed for one-off decisions, and treats knowledge as single-use and disposable. The typical policy memo is static and one dimensional (Figure 1). Breaking down the typical policy memo into functional moving parts. The Bayes Brief is named after Bayes’ Rule, a foundational concept in statistics that updates existing knowledge based on the arrival of new, relevant pieces of evidence.ġ. The memo is designed to systematically, transparently, and reproducibly incorporate qualitative and quantitative evidence from multiple sources, including where the evidence is contradictory or absent. The Bayes Brief is an updated policy memo template that empowers evidence in the policy creation process. This outdated process excludes reference to the underlying evidence supporting arguments and incentivizes lowest-common-denominator policy decisions that prioritize consensus over impact. There is no accountability for the quality of analysis, and best available intelligence is usually absent from policy decision memos. The majority of memos and policy decisions are never reexamined, leaving little trace of how the policy evolves over time except in the memories of the most experienced and learned policymakers.Īn absence of standards for evidence and analysis, leading to ad hoc, idiosyncratic, risk-averse decision making. In today’s system, policy-makers depend on their own judgment and experience to subjectively evaluate the quality of a recommendation. Once a policy is adopted, its impact is seldom monitored or evaluated throughout implementation. As a result, analysts are forced to reinvent the wheel and rebuild existing knowledge in each iteration of the policy process.Īn inability to track the impact of policy decisions over time. Knowledge from past memos that should be leveraged in future decisions is lost, inaccessible, and rendered useless. There is no systematic, accessible repository of policy decisions and evidence. We see three pain points leading stemming from - and contributing to - an inefficient decision-making process:Īn inability to retrieve past decisions and knowledge, leading to a constant replication of effort. Many of these problems are caused by an outdated policy memo process. Outside observers must simply trust that the decision-maker knows best. Tacit knowledge cannot be disseminated, trained, evaluated, or replicated. State’s reliance on tacit knowledge - that which is not written down - means that individual insight is prioritized over collective knowledge. Informal processes may have made sense when the Department was much smaller and technological capabilities were much more limited, but that is no longer the case. Legacy knowledge management systems at State have atrophied as decision-makers are flooded with endless information. Our research suggests there is virtually no effective knowledge management system at the State Department. We also encourage you to check out our recent report on knowledge management at the State Department research which helped inform the Bayes Brief. Let’s first evaluate the challenges with the status quo policy memo, and then we’ll introduce the key features of the Bayes Brief. The Brief also provides a dynamic platform to ensure policy decisions can quickly react to changes on the ground, and decisions can be monitored and evaluated across time and policy space to ensure success. It facilitates a policy process that focuses attention onto evidence of likely policy success rather than flimsy opinions. The Bayes Brief achieves this by breaking down the typical policy memo into functional moving parts so that knowledge is easily stored, located, and retrieved. Knowledge is the most important strategic asset for foreign policy, and it must be prioritized and leveraged as such. It is a simple intervention into the policy process that could positively impact the effectiveness of U.S. The Bayes Brief re-imagines the policy memo by capturing and summarizing evidence in a systematic format conducive for policy success in the information age. The Bayes Brief is fp21’s attempt to design the future of the policy memo. And a team of experienced ambassadors at working at Harvard’s Belfer Center calls for a “ dramatic streamlining of clearance processes.” A report from the Council on Foreign Relations suggests “ clearance hell” contributes to the State Department’s “lousy reputation for policy effectiveness.” They call for “a completely new approach” to the policy clearance process. Two prominent recent studies of the State Department crystalize long-simmering calls for reform of this process. As the State Department adage suggests, “The paper process is the policy process.” The policy memo sits at the heart of decision-making and knowledge management at State––yet it has not meaningfully evolved in decades. By: Alex Bollfrass, Ellice Huang, and Dan Spokojny | January 23, 2022
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |